Analysis on investment value of food and beverage

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05 investment value analysis of food and beverage industry in the second half of 2005

in the first half of 2005, with macro theory, the shore a hardness value was obtained With the appearance of the regulation effect, the boom of cyclical industries has gradually declined, and the anti cyclical advantages of the consumer goods industry have become prominent. Among them, the food and beverage industry showed a steady growth trend. From January to May 2005, the whole industry achieved a total sales revenue of 595.161 billion yuan and a total profit of 27.072 billion yuan, an increase of 28.70% and 25.94% respectively year-on-year. You can visit our factory

from the perspective of various sub industries, the medium and high-end liquor manufacturers in wine and Baijiu are in good operation, and the leading enterprises are outstanding in the industry and even the whole market; The slaughtering and meat products processing industry benefited from the continuous decline in pig prices and grew strongly; As the beer industry is still in the stage of integration, the low consumption season and the rise in sales costs caused by competition in the stock market have made the industry less profitable in the first half of the year; The growth rate of the total profit of the yellow rice wine industry is only better than that of the beer and sugar industry, and breaking through the regional market is the key; Guangming incident not only gives its competitors market share, but also adds the curse of food safety; Due to the influence of the weather, the output of the sugar industry has decreased sharply, but its internal metal wire has local fracture and destruction, which benefits from the high sugar price

with the steady growth of consumption in the second half of the year, the food and beverage industry will continue to grow, and the pressure on raw material costs will be less than last year. We believe that the outstanding performance will still be the well operated sub industries in the first half of the year: wine, Baijiu, slaughtering and meat products processing. We maintain a neutral rating for the dairy, beer and rice wine industries, and give an investment rating of underweight to the sugar industry

we believe that there is uncertainty in the expected time and adjustment mode of the consumption tax benefit of the Baijiu industry, and the focus should still be on enterprises with brand advantages, high product positioning, stable operation and small geographical restrictions

although the operation of the dairy industry this year is significantly better than last year, compared with other sub industries, the impact of food safety factors is more obvious. Moreover, in the next two to three years, it will be difficult for leading enterprises to maintain their profitability while expanding their production capacity rapidly but with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. The development of beer and rice wine industry has not shown a rapid growth momentum in the short term. As for the sugar industry, the production expectation in the pressing season is not optimistic

we suggest focusing on Guizhou Moutai, Shuanghui development, Changyu A and Tsingtao beer. The split share structure will restore the current high valuation level of food and beverage, and the investment value of leading enterprises in the industry will be more obvious at that time

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