Analysis on market development of construction mac

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2008 China Construction machinery circulation field market development analysis

2008 China Construction machinery circulation field market development analysis

China Construction machinery information

Introduction: at the 2006 and 2007 conferences, the Secretariat of the Agency Committee has successively released two reports on the field of construction machinery circulation, which has been approved by everyone. This year, the Agency Committee joined hands with experts from the National Development Research Center, Jointly created and completed the 2008 China Construction machinery circulation market report...

at the 2006 and 2007 conferences, the Secretariat of the Agency Committee has issued two reports on the circulation of construction machinery, which were approved by everyone. This year, the Agency Committee joined hands with experts from the National Development research center to jointly create and complete the 2008 China Construction machinery circulation market report. At the 6th China Construction Machinery Marketing Summit Forum, Secretary General Feng Guiying of the agent working committee of China Construction Machinery Industry Association jointly interpreted this annual report on the circulation field of China Construction machinery

the following is a live recording

Feng Guiying:

this report on the circulation field is our first release since 2006. At that time, the first release was mainly to investigate the survival status of agents in the circulation field of our agent industry. At that time, I think it was also the first time to have such a report in the construction machinery industry, which attracted a lot of attention from insiders. It should be said that this report is not only of practical significance to the circulation field, but also of reference significance to the insiders of other enterprises in our construction machinery industry. We also made an unusual gift for our annual conference. This report is exclusive, authoritative and annual

let's first look at the original intention of our report. The circulation field covers a lot of contents. What should we do in 2008? Indeed, this report puts great pressure on us every year, just as we hold this conference. We should continue to introduce innovation every year, and do it in combination with the hot spots of that year. Indeed, we considered a very important issue at the beginning of the year

at the beginning of this year, we made a lot of practical investigations and found that in 2008, we all paid special attention to three issues. First, in 2008, when the global oscillation occurred, where should the macro-economy go? Many agents encounter human resources confusion? The third is that the cumulative negative effects of raw material price increases have an impact on the whole industry. So these three points are the most important core issues of our 2008 report, and they are also the root cause of this report. Of course, the situation in the circulation field is complex and diverse. Market research has certain limitations, as well as the limitations of funds, which cannot fully represent the overall picture of the circulation of construction machinery. However, we believe that the foresight of its vision, the uniqueness of its perspective and the richness of its content will bring some enlightening value to the manufacturers and agents of construction machinery

let's first look at the structure of this report. We said that we should mainly solve these three core problems. The first is the development trend of national economic development, policy environment and construction machinery industry in 2008. The second is the analysis of the development of the construction machinery industry and the factors of material price investigation. The third construction machinery agent human resources survey analysis

let's first look at the first part. Just now we talked about the development of macro-economy and construction machinery industry. Let's first look at the policy environment of China's economic development. As you can see in our report, this section of the report accounts for a relatively heavy weight. That is, because there were many economic changes in 2008, we just cooperated with the industrial economic operation Office of the development research center of the State Council, so this part accounts for a large proportion. The industrial economic operation Office of the national development and Reform Commission specializes in studying the development trends of various industries across the country. For example, there are a large number of data and facts in our related industries such as transportation, real estate, construction and other industries, so the cycle law of the economy is more realistic

in the first part, we have some questions and thoughts, or what questions do we want to answer for you in the first part? First, which domestic economic development factors are closely related to the construction machinery industry, and what is the role of the fixed asset investment credit environment and credit policy environment relative to the engineering industry? What is the degree of correlation between the periodicity of domestic economic development and the periodicity of the development of the construction machinery industry? Will the next decade be a high-level operation or a low-level adjustment? The third question is: what is the confidence of China's macro economy in the next two years? Is 2008 the trough or just the beginning of the trough? Is it a severe winter or an ordinary winter? These are the problems we need to solve in this part

let's first look at the periodicity of China's economic development. As we all know, the demand for construction machinery is often inseparable from the fixed asset investment in our downstream industries, and the fixed asset investment is closely connected with the national macro-economy. Every time we study the construction machinery industry, we must first study the macro-economy, so the study of the construction machinery industry is inseparable from the national macro-economy and the medium, long-term and short-term trend analysis. I think the most classic and basic curve of the industrial and economic operation Department of the State Council can get a lot of answers from this curve. This cycle started in 2002. In fact, the previous cycle should be 2000. The second cycle starts in 2000. You can see that the green curve has three levels of forces superimposed. One is the long-term trend, the second is the short-term economic cycle, and the third is the dual force determined by the impact factors, such as earthquakes, snow disasters, etc., which determines the current economic operation curve. You can see from this curve that the cycle fluctuation was quite severe in 2008. Will we follow the red curve upward or the green curve downward in 2008? The State Council gave a conclusion on this issue. I'll tell you the conclusion. Looking back at the past economic fluctuations, we can see that after the economic downturn in 2004, everyone was worried that China's economy would collapse. At that time, the construction machinery industry was also greatly affected, but later, the facts and development were completely different from our concerns. We can see from it that China's high economic level in 2004 and 2005 was adjusted, Entering a new round of growth, what forces are supporting it? At that time, all short-term forces were negative. When explaining that round of growth, everyone coincidentally found the medium and long-term force of urbanization and consumption structure upgrading. The medium and long-term force of China's economic growth has not been damaged. We can confidently expect that the Chinese people will have a high-level economy in 2009, 2010 and the next 10 years, So we can definitely say that our chart answers at least three questions. That is, the next 30 years will be long-term, and the next 30 years will continue to maintain a trend of growth. In the medium term and the next 10 years, there is no suspense about the steady rise, and it is certain. Third, the fluctuation in the next two years will decline. 2008 is only the beginning of a bottom decline, and 2009 and the first half of 2010 are the lowest. This graph will give these three conclusions. It took me about half an hour to talk about this figure. I just tell you the essence of this conclusion. It's enough to tell you the results. I think this figure is the most classic. If we remember this figure, if we can't remember it, and remember the three conclusions, I don't think it's worth it today

now the financial storm on Wall Street has swept the world and also affected China. This trend has not changed. For this reason, I called Dr. Yang last Friday. Now the storm on Wall Street is so severe that it has affected China so much. He said, don't worry, because our curve is positive. Especially the closing of the Third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee. As you may know, I can sum up four words. One is stability and flexibility. To stabilize the economy, currency and finance, our financial experts will say that we still have flexible economic policies, so this trend will not change. They also answered some questions in the first part

next, let's look at fixed asset investment. There is a close correlation between the construction machinery industry and fixed asset investment. From 1997 to August 2008, there is a curve that the investment in fixed assets is positively related to the sales revenue of construction machinery. Let's take a look at the relationship between deposits and loans. Loans began to decline since 2007, and fell sharply in 2008. Let's take another look at the regional economy. We can see that the balance of the regional economy has improved in recent years, breaking the original good sales situation in the East. The growth rate in the central and eastern regions is relatively high, with 28% in the central region and 35% in the western region. The mark is wrong, and the figures in the eastern and western regions are changed

the next few are the forecasts of the development of related industries and fixed asset investment, which is also a forecast report on the market demand of excavators from 2008 to 2009 studied by the development research center of the State Council this year. I'll share some classic pictures with you. There is no one in this report. Why do you share them? It also simplifies several conclusions for you to see. This curve is the curve of investment between medium-sized excavators and transportation industry. What is the purpose of this graph? Seeing that the growth of excavator sales revenue lags behind the investment in transportation industry for 3 to 4 months, this is a relatively recognized relationship

next, let's look at related industries - mining. There is a growth curve for the fixed asset investment in the mining industry. From this growth curve, the fixed asset investment in China's mining industry showed a partial high-level adjustment in 2009 and 10, and maintained a steady growth trend as a whole. In 2008, it basically operated in more than 20% of the region, reaching 628billion yuan of investment. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment is expected to reach 21.35%. In 2009, it fell again on the basis, but it still maintained a stable operation situation, It is estimated that the annual fixed asset investment in 2009 is expected to reach 715billion yuan, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment will stabilize at 14%. The curve from October 2009 to October 2009 is equivalent to what we did in October. It is relatively stable, but there is still a small peak in 2009 and 2008

let's look at the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the construction industry. From the perspective of the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the construction industry, the performance of fixed asset investment in the construction industry from 2008 to 2009 has gradually warmed up. You can see that February 2008 is the bottom. At the beginning of the year, affected by the national macro-control and monetary tightening policies, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the construction industry has declined. According to our prediction, the growth rate will pick up in the second half of 2008, and it is expected to increase by 12% throughout the year. In 2009, it will basically maintain this range, The annual growth rate is expected to reach 11% or 12%, which is basically the same as that in 2008

let's turn to real estate. The real estate industry was originally the focus of national macro-control. It is expected that the growth rate of its fixed asset investment will fall significantly in 2008, but the cumulative year-on-year growth is likely to fall to 17%. This trend will continue in the first half of 2009, as you can see. According to the forecast, the growth rate will rise again, and the fixed asset investment will reach 33000 in the second half of 2009 and 2008

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