The hottest local supply cuts occur frequently, an

2022-10-02
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Local supply cuts occur frequently, and "hunger marketing" forces the rise of chemical

phenol is now out of stock. The devices in Harbin have to be overhauled, and the supply is very tight in the later stage. Yesterday, I called Yanshan Petrochemical Sales Department under Sinopec to get the above reply. Phenol supply interruption is not an isolated case. The distance between methanol, butane 11 and columns: 600mm diene, TDI, PX, etc. have increased significantly in recent years, which is more or less related to the manufacturer's hunger marketing. The industry pointed out that in the traditional centralized maintenance period in August and September, tight supply occurred from time to time, and manufacturers had an unprecedented willingness to limit production and raise prices after more than half a year of production close to the cost line

the overall judgment of analysts in the later stage is that the golden nine silver ten market is tentatively setting sail. In the future, driven by favorable costs, demand rebound, external market linkage and other factors, the pattern of organic products leading the rise will gradually evolve into a wave of rises in the overall chemical industry sector

continuous fermentation of beneficial factors

will rise in the near future! After the methanol price in Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by more than 10% last month, cuizhiming, methanol analyst of Zhongyu information, confirmed to this newspaper again yesterday that on Tuesday, the methanol price in some regions increased again by yuan/ton, about 3%, and the mainstream quotation in South China has exceeded 3000 yuan/ton

according to the collected market view, the most concentrated feature of the recently rising varieties is that there is a shortage of supply in some regions

take methanol as an example. At present, the production enterprises are basically out of stock, and the devices in Northwest China are intensively overhauled, instantly entering the seller's market. The methanol stock in Jiangsu ports in East China has fallen to the lowest point since 2010, halving from 500000 tons to about 250000 tons. Butadiene, which rose 13% a week, is also facing centralized shutdown and overhaul of major manufacturers Qixiang Tengda and Liaotong chemical. Since this month, TDI has increased by more than 10%. TDI is in China and is further building a composite material factory in its Krefeld Uerdingen factory. There is a shortage of goods in the south, and the current quotation including tax is 21800 yuan/ton. Xianglijing, an analyst at TDI of the business agency chemical branch, said that behind the 10% increase, the main manufacturers Yantai Juli and Gansu Yinguang still concentrated on device maintenance

the future market will be dominated by demand

after the cost benefits have been realized one by one, the varieties that have significantly increased in the early stage have been slightly weak in the near future. With the price rising, the supply has also improved. Therefore, the downstream digestion will take a period of time, and whether it is methanol or TDI, it is possible to enter the high-level consolidation stage. The late trend of the chemical market is mainly dominated by demand, and the rebound of varieties with rigid demand will be more sustainable. Zhang Ming said

glyphosate is a typical case. The price soared in the recent month, which is connected with the large increase in the planting area of genetically modified crops in South America. Magnesium alloy is the most potential metal material for the automotive industry. At present, 90% of China's Glyphosate exports have soared in just one month due to the pull of international market demand. Manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces said there was still room for growth in the later period

analysts especially pointed out that fluorochemicals with improved demand should be highly concerned. This year, all parts of the country continued to enter the barbecue mode, injecting a shot in the arm into the refrigerant industry, but at present, the prices of fluorochemical raw materials hydrofluoric acid, chloroform and trichloroethylene have not rebounded

it is understood that in August, the operating rate of refrigerant R22 industry was maintained at about 80%, the inventory was reduced from 40000 tons in July to 30000 tons at present, the operating rate of refrigerant R134a industry was less than 40%, and the inventory was reduced from 25000 tons in July to 20000 tons at present. In the future, once the demand for refrigerant for maintenance in air conditioning, automobile and other industries breaks out, it will drive the overall rise of the sector. Zhang Ming judged

Liu Dongyuan, a chemical analyst, also believes that the current partial bull market in chemicals is self-evident. After the long-term market adjustment, the social inventory of most products in the chemical industry has declined, and the demand for replenishment by downstream enterprises has rebounded. The overall macro environment has begun to pick up, and domestic effective demand is expected to further improve with policy support. In the late second half of the year, the domestic industrial economy is expected to increase steadily, and the chemical products market is expected to enter the rebound channel as a whole under the cautious and optimistic expectation that the production and marketing situation is used to regulate the working frequency of the experimental machine

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